g 6 Marks

Describe net accumulation of GHGs.

Answer: Net Accumulation of Greenhouse Gases

1. Definition

Net Accumulation of GHGs refers to the increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases when total global emissions exceed the rate at which these gases are removed by natural carbon sinks (oceans, forests, soil). This accumulation enhances the greenhouse effect and drives climate change.

Net Accumulation = Total Emissions - Natural Absorption by Sinks

If Emissions > Absorption → Positive Accumulation → Rising Concentrations

2. Global Carbon Budget

Component Amount (Gt CO2/year) Notes
Emissions from Fossil Fuels ~36-37 Coal, oil, gas, cement
Emissions from Land Use ~4-5 Deforestation, land conversion
Total Emissions ~40-42 Human-caused emissions
Ocean Absorption ~10-11 Dissolved CO2, marine organisms
Land Sink (Forests) ~11-12 Photosynthesis, soil storage
Total Absorption ~21-23 ~50% of emissions
Net Accumulation ~19-20 Remains in atmosphere

Key Point: Earth's natural sinks absorb only about 50% of human CO2 emissions. The remaining 50% (~20 Gt CO2/year) accumulates in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to rise continuously.

3. Historical Accumulation

Gas Pre-Industrial Level Current Level (2024) Increase
CO2 280 ppm ~420 ppm +50%
CH4 700 ppb ~1,900 ppb +170%
N2O 270 ppb ~335 ppb +24%

4. Reasons for Net Accumulation

A. Emission Sources Outpacing Sinks:

B. Weakening Carbon Sinks:

5. Long Atmospheric Lifetime

CO2 has an exceptionally long atmospheric residence time, contributing to persistent accumulation:

Implication: CO2 emitted today will continue affecting climate for hundreds to thousands of years. This creates "carbon debt" - even if emissions stopped today, accumulated CO2 would continue warming the planet.

6. Consequences of Net Accumulation

7. Achieving Zero Net Accumulation

Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations requires:

Conclusion

Net accumulation of GHGs occurs because human emissions far exceed the absorption capacity of natural carbon sinks. Currently, about half of annual CO2 emissions (~20 Gt) accumulate in the atmosphere each year, raising concentrations from 280 ppm (pre-industrial) to over 420 ppm today. This accumulation, combined with the long atmospheric lifetime of CO2, creates a persistent warming effect that will impact climate for centuries. Achieving climate stabilization requires not just reducing emissions but ultimately reaching net-zero emissions where any remaining emissions are balanced by removal.

Sources: Module 1 Notes | Global Carbon Project | IPCC AR6 | NOAA Carbon Cycle